THR
As one executive puts it, if Star Wars: The Force Awakens doesn't score the biggest debut ever when it hits theaters Dec. 18, he'll "run up and down Sunset Boulevard naked." So how high could J.J. Abrams' reboot fly? The top U.S. opening is The Avengers, which launched to $207.4 million in May 2012 from 4,349 theaters. Disney's sequel, Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 1), could become the new champ, but many believe Force Awakens has every chance of outrunning them both, even with the distraction of Christmas. Globally it could rake in nearly $540 million, topping the three-day record set by the final Harry Potter film ($483.2 million). "If it pleases the fans of the old movies and also appeals to kids, watch out," says box-office analyst Phil Contrino.
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It's a good quote. This movie will break 300 easily, but if it's GOOD then yeah, 500 million is nothing and it'll break 1 billion faster than probably any other movie.
The whole idea is that people need to come again. Being Christmas, it isn't a distraction at all. Many films benefit from that time because families have something to do when everything else is closed. Get them in, then get them to come again 2 or 3 times. Being honest, it'll probably already have the 500 by Christmas.
I mean we are talking globally, so yeah, 500 million is a reasonable goal. I feel as though it'll break the local record too with a cool 300 million at least opening weekend, and 350 for the week.
I do think this has a huge hype train leading into it and will be the biggest of their releases.
If Avatar can do it and Titanic can do it, Star Wars can do it.