For Your Consideration

We all heard it early on as if it was gospel. 12 YEARS A SLAVE is the one to beat. It’s going to be 12 YEARS A SLAVE. You know what: 12 YEARS A SLAVE is taking all the awards. But allow me to go against the bandwagon of 12 YEARS A SLAVE. And I’ll tell you why. The topic of slavery isn't something fresh. Calm down, Spike Lee: I don’t mean to negate slavery into an empty genre as if turning it into a word without meaning. I just think it’s been beaten like a dead horse for the time being. Let the hate mail commence. The major film awards were overrun last year with strong contending teams from LINCOLN and DJANGO UNCHAINED. Is, for instance, the AMPAS really set to commit to another year of the same? I certainly feel nominations are due for writing, directing, acting and even Best Picture, but I think any win(s) will be limited to writing and/or acting.

Elsewhere, momentum stopped for THE BOOK THIEF, an early buzz darling, back in November, albeit John William's score remains for solid contention. Ron Howard's RUSH got drowned out back in August, a poorly-planned release date, with a box-office tally in need of a boost. The film should see a small resurgence among awards groups now in the Best Supporting Actor category for Daniel Bruhl. I also wouldn't be surprised to see spots be filled in Best Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and/or Editing come the Oscars. THE BUTLER was another August release alongside RUSH, but with more hype and box-office drive. Nonetheless, it seems to have excitement fading for it. While it will muster nominations, I don’t think we’ll be seeing any sweep across the board. There are many award brands, even if they aren’t all equal, that Forest Whitaker might pull off wins in on his own, but we’ll see. For Tom Hanks, who is a part of two movies, SAVING MR. BANKS and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, seeking some trophies this awards season; groups will probably be eyeing him more for his performance in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS alongside a Best Supporting Actor nod for his co-star Barkhad Abdi. Whatever the case, there doesn’t seem to be a dominating consensus in any acting category like there was last year for Daniel Day-Lewis in LINCOLN (2012) or a back-and-forth tightness similar to that same time frame between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. That may change as the prizes finally start getting bestowed.

More recently, we’ve been getting substantiated buzz of strong trophy hope for AMERICAN HUSTLE: an orgasm of 1970’s milieu. With that setting in mind, now I’m thinking: ARGO all over again? It is about another government operation after all. But seriously, from the promos and all, I get an attack of disco above everything from the movie. I’m expecting to see a few of the cast being nominated and while it may provide the second-biggest representation behind 12 YEARS A SLAVE across the different acting categories, I don’t think it going to translate into the powerhouse on the scorecard many have been anticipating.

Whereas last year showcased many design-heavy and high-profile projects (ex. LINCOLN, LIFE OF PIE, DJANGO UNCHAINED, ZERO DARK THIRTY), this awards season should see some solid nominations given to smaller fare. I’m predicting nominee lists to consistently include talents like Bruce Dern and Alexander Payne for NEBRASKA, Judi Dench for PHILOMENA with a writing nod to that film as well, nominations to Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB and a solo nomination by the time of the Oscars to AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY via Meryl Streep, in what feels like an annual tradition at this point when it comes to her. Let’s not forget BLUE JASMINE though. Woody Allen is getting another Oscar nomination here, also seemingly an annual custom, and I’m expecting this movie to also expand outside of Allen’s usual writing praise by means of Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress nominations for Cate Blanchett and Sally Hawkins, respectively. INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS is another gem that will get recognized and the Coen Brothers should prove to be Woody Allen's toughest competition in the writing department, although Alexander Payne can't be discounted.

While it has coasted relatively under the radar, all may not be lost for Robert Redford’s performance in ALL IS LOST. It’s not coming off a big windfall at the box-office and Robert Redford has never been a favorite son of the Academy Awards in the acting department. But he is respected, so could this be framed as an opportunity to make things right? That’s not always the greatest justification to put all your hopes in for results, reminding me of VENUS (2006) and the praise for Peter O’Toole that came with it. All of it wasn’t enough to get Mr. O’Toole an Academy Award win and he was coming off seven previous Best Actor nominations over a few decades. But ALL IS LOST does have the extra ability to build some steam in the categories of Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing.

A top pick of mine this year when it comes down to what really matters, an Oscar win, is: GRAVITY. The most talk around this movie has been focused on Sandra Bullock’s chance at a Best Actress nod, but while everyone is going one small step for this movie, I’m prepared to go one giant leap for it. Yes, Best Picture, Best Director. Why? Sci-fi is usually a tough thing to sell for a statuette. In recent years, only AVATAR had a shot, and even then, not really beyond the technical stuff. If groups of voters like members of the AMPAS want to give some recognition to sci-fi, I think this is their rare shot for a while just like in 2012 when people got thinking, “When are we really going to have another black-and-white silent movie about an artist worth getting behind?” GRAVITY is something fresh, it got people in movie theaters and it managed to interweave the technical complexity of filmmaking with the traditional element of acting.

And with all that, we have a dark horse. That dark horse, on which no one knows how to bet, is Martin Scorsese’s THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, inched-out as his longest movie ever. Its release is near the cutoff date to be considered for anything, which explains the current lack of comparative hype. While Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese aren’t the best bets for Oscar wins, don’t count this one out. It feels like something different for both of them. It also feels like it packs an intense punch. Whether the punch is a hit or a miss remains to be seen. Could this be Hollywood’s genuine chance to highlight a satirical spotlight on Wall Street so close to the Great Recession without being preachy? I suggest buying stock in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET and GRAVITY. Just don’t mention my name to the SEC.