Box Office Predictions For 2012

jbl316 · 2012-01-04T17:14:11Z

A lot of sequels will be out in 2012 and sequels usually tend to make more money than original movies since audiences are already familiar with the characters and source material. There are a ton of movies out in 2012 and here are our predictions for how much money the biggest releases could earn in their entire theatrical runs.

- Comments (7)

C_Menz4886d ago

I think that The Dark Knight will surpass The Hobbit. But we'll see, personally they are the only two movies I plan to see this year in theaters.

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jbl3164886d ago

I feel The Hobbit will win because it's in 3D and people outside of USA love The Hobbit more than Batman. Still, we'll have to wait and see to see who does come out on top for real.

I'm looking forward to both movies as well!

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cloud4954886d ago

I feel the same way. But Batman is releasing in the summer holidays for the northern hemisphere so it might get a boost. But as you say we'll have to wait and see to see who does come out on top.

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JL4886d ago

To answer on your reply below: It shouldn't even be a contest which one does better in NZ. Hobbit should have that hands down.

For worldwide total, again, I say it will be close, but I figure TDKR to get the edge. We'll have to see, though. I can pretty much guarantee this though: TDKR will do better domestically (US) while Hobbit does better internationally.

As for 3D, I don't really see it springing back so to speak. The decline in percentage is pointing to the fact that people are getting tired of it and apparently really do see it as just a gimmick (a gimmick that they're almost done with). Now, you do have the occasional one that gets a big boost in 3D attendance here and there, but on the whole it's declining.

I figure if any movie next year will get those people to be like "Ok, we'll do 3D one more time for now" it will be The Hobbit. But it will probably be just a moderate spike over the dwindling percentages. I imagine a lot will be content to not have to deal with 3D anymore and know it will look plenty beautiful in 2D as well.

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JL4886d ago

I agree with the thinking that TDKR will beat out The Hobbit. Should be close, but I see TDKR getting the edge.

The thing is, finales for popular franchises (and box office monsters) usually outperform everything that year and surpass the previous movies in the franchise. This especially holds true for franchises that are so critically acclaimed such as Nolan's Batman series. So, I'd expect TDKR to surpass Dark Knight, probably getting somewhere up near 1.2 Billion.

Some may argue that the only reason Dark Knight did so well was because of Ledger. I disagree. It did well because of the word of mouth about how good Batman Begins was, plus the marketing behind the movie (it just happens Ledger was a big part of the marketing focus). Some even argue that Bane isn't as popular as Joker. Maybe not, but there's one thing people seem to be overlooking....this is the final Batman from Nolan, and they are seriously teasing that Bane could possibly kill Batman or at least seriously injure him ("The Legend Ends").

Now, The Hobbit kind of has the appeal of being a sequel, but at the same time not. It's a completely new story. So, while it will return fans, it's not going to get the boost of a finale because nobody is invested in that particular story yet (Part 2 of The Hobbit will break records on the other hand).

Then you have the 3D argument. Sorry, but 3D attendance is waning. Granted The Hobbit will be one of the big ones to get people to actually return to 3D for that one movie, but you still have a bunch that are just tired of it and will just opt to go 2D. Furthermore, while Hobbit has 3D, TDKR has IMAX (a medium that hasn't NEARLY been run into the ground as 3D). And last I checked around here IMAX tickets are actually more than regular theaters' 3D tickets by a dollar or two. And trust, people are going to flock to IMAX this one time for TDKR.

As cloud mentioned above as well, TDKR gets a summer release. So it will undoubtedly get a boost from that. And while The Hobbit will have more international appeal, TDKR has more domestic appeal (and still has plenty of international appeal as well).

So, while it will be a tight race, I figure TDKR to come out the winner worldwide, and it will be the winner by a much bigger margin domestically speaking.

A couple to look out for, though: Twilight and Ice Age. Those two won't compete with Hobbit or Dark Knight, but I could actually see both beating Spider-Man and Avengers in worldwide numbers. Twilight will be the last so the fans will be eating it up. Meanwhile, Ice Age continues to be a monster internationally and could possibly get $600-700Million from overseas alone.

I actually see Avengers being the bigger disappointment. People seem to think this is going to do huge numbers. Some even make it out like they expect it to get near the billion mark. It's not going to happen. I'm honestly not even sure it surpasses Iron Man 3.

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jbl3164886d ago

Wow some great analysis that I never thought about. One thing is certain, The Hobbit will do better in my home country of New Zealand than TDKR. Mainly because Peter Jackson is from NZ and it's filmed here. Not to mention the LOTR movies made more money here than any Batman movie ever did. You're right about TDKR being more popular in the USA!

3D might bounce back when the Avatar sequels come out.

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