Deadline:
"With the awards season is dissected and examined these days, it might appear as though creating a successful campaign is simply a matter of shrewd marketing and a key release date. But even the most cynical strategist will admit that luck is still as much a part of earning an Oscar nomination as anything else."
Critically I think Argo might be the front runner but time will tell.
I saw this movie and it really is looking like it's going to have a good chance to win big this year.