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I don't think so. I could see it getting a nom, but not winning. There's Tarantino and PT Anderson films coming out!
Will it? Possible. Should it? No.
Yeah, it won't win Best Picture...but it will certainly get teh Inception/Avatar vote a.k.a the one huge blockbuster nominated for Best Picture amidst all the tiny arthouse pics.
it will certainly be nominated for two reasons; it might be the most top grossing movie this year and because it was snubbed before into contention thats why the following year oscar nominations had 10 candidates for best picture. its to early to predict the chances that it can get the top honor, since it has yet to be shown and who knows if there would be a movie that is really good coming out later this year.
This happens every year. Batman, Avengers, or Spider-man will be nominated, but when it comes down to it none of them have a chance AT ALL.
The people that pick the winners HATE anything good and mainstream....they always lean towards artsy smaller budget movies, and releasing during the summer as a blockbuster nearly kills you half the time. It doesn't matter how boring the film is, they always learn to those......