The profile was wrong!
The BAU may have established an erroneous profile before, but if they have, it doesn't come up in recent memory. Usually they're so good at what they do they can tell if you're lying when you say what you've had for breakfast.
The setting for Criminal Minds Season 11 Episode 6 was a little town called Glenport Village. That was significant because of its one unique characteristic: it mostly housed ex-convicts who were non-violent sex offenders.